Annoucements

RTY Overview and Recent Macro Backdrop RTY, or Russell 2000 futures, track the performance of the Russell 2000 Index, which represents approximately two thousand U.S. small cap companies. These constituents are drawn from the lower end of the Russell 3000 Index and typically reflect firms with smaller market capitalizations, greater domestic revenue exposure, and higher sensitivity to economic conditions than their large cap peers. The primary deciding factor for inclusion in RTY versus the S&P 500 is market capitalization. The Russell 2000 consists of the smallest two thousand companies within the Russell 3000, while the S&P 500 is a committee selected index composed of roughly five hundred large cap companies that must meet additional criteria such as profitability, liquidity, sector balance, and sustained earnings. Although market cap thresholds shift annually, Russell 2000 constituents generally fall well below the market cap range of S&P 500 companies and are reconstituted mechanically each year based on size rankings. As the market settles into the new year, RTY has been trading within a more nuanced macro environment shaped by early year repositioning and reassessment of economic expectations. Price action over the past month has been increasingly influenced by evolving views on monetary policy, credit conditions, and the durability of U.S. growth. While recent inflation data has shown signs of moderation, it has remained uneven, keeping rate cut expectations fluid rather than fully priced in. This has limited sustained directional momentum in small caps, as higher borrowing costs continue to pressure balance sheets and earnings visibility. At the same time, resilient employment data and stable consumer demand have helped contain downside risk, allowing buyers to engage at value rather than chase extension. The result has been a rotational and range bound market structure, reflecting cautious positioning and a wait and see approach, with RTY acting as a battleground between early year growth optimism and ongoing policy and financing constraints. What the Market has done • Market reversed higher and entered an uptrend after concerns surrounding Trump’s liberation day tariffs eased in April 2025. • In July 2025, the market consolidated and formed bid block 1, which buyers used as a base to drive price higher toward the 2585 area, a key daily resistance established in 2021 and the 2024 yearly high. • Sellers responded at the 2585 area and offered prices back down toward the 2440 area, aligning with daily support and the 24 Nov weekly HVN. • Buyers attempted to defend the 2440 area but failed, resulting in a downside auction to the 2320 area, corresponding to the bid block 1 high. • Buyers defended and initiated at the 2320 area, bidding prices back up to the 2585 area, where sellers remained active. • Markets have since rotated between the 2585 and 2490 areas. What to expect in the coming week The key level to monitor is the 48650 area, which aligns with the previous week’s VPOC and the 15 December weekly Value Area High Bullish scenario • If the market is able to hold above the previous week’s settlement, an initial move toward the 2555 area is expected, which aligns with the 22 Dec weekly VAL, the 3 Dec weekly VAH, and the 0.5 weekly SD high. • If price is able to accept above the 2555 area, continuation toward the 2585 area becomes likely. • Sellers are expected to respond around the 2585 area based on prior failed auctions and higher timeframe resistance. • If sellers fail to gain control, the market could extend higher toward the 2620 area, which marks the 8 Dec weekly high. Neutral scenario • In the absence of a major news or data catalyst, the market may continue to auction two ways • A rotational consolidation between the 2490 and 2555 areas would signal continued balance and acceptance of value within this range. Bearish scenario • If buyers are unable to defend and hold the 2490 area, expect a move down toward the 2460 area, which aligns with the 1 weekly SD high. • Continued selling pressure could cause markets to auction prices further down to the 2440 area, which remains a key daily support and the 24 Nov weekly HVN. Conclusion In conclusion, RTY remains in a balanced yet highly responsive state, with higher timeframe reference levels clearly defended and defended by both buyers and sellers. The 2490 area is the line in the sand for the coming week, and traders should remain flexible and responsive to acceptance or rejection around this zone. As always, patience and execution around key levels will matter more than prediction. If you found this breakdown useful, feel free to give a boost, comment, or share your own levels and scenarios below. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk.

Understanding YM and the Current Market Environment The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract, commonly referred to as YM, represents a price weighted index composed of 30 large, established U.S. companies across industrials, financials, healthcare, and consumer sectors. Unlike the S&P 500, which is market capitalization weighted and broader in scope, the Dow tends to reflect performance in more mature, cyclical, and value oriented companies. Because of this composition, YM often behaves differently from the S&P 500 during periods of rotation between growth and value or when interest rate and macro expectations shift. Over the past month, YM has generally tracked the bullish tone seen in the broader equity indices, though with its own internal rhythm. While the S&P 500 has continued to be driven by mega cap technology and growth names, YM strength has largely come from financials, industrials, and defensive value stocks. Recent price action suggests a market that remains constructive but increasingly selective, with participants sensitive to valuation, positioning, and year end flows. Overall sentiment remains cautiously bullish, though signs of short term exhaustion have appeared near the highs What the Market has done • Since the start of December, buyers have consistently stepped up bids, establishing higher value and maintaining control of the broader auction. • During the second week of December, buyers defended the 1 December weekly High Value Node, which provided a clear structural base. This defense allowed prices to rotate higher and ultimately make new all time highs. • In the third week of December, profit taking emerged from buyers near the highs. The market was unable to accept at all time highs and began auctioning lower. • Price rotated back down toward the 1 December weekly High Value Node, where buyers once again responded and bid price higher, pushing the market back toward all time highs into last week. • This behavior reflects a market that remains supported structurally but is increasingly two sided near extremes. What to expect in the coming week The key level to monitor is the 48650 area, which aligns with the previous week’s VPOC and the 15 December weekly Value Area High Bullish scenario • Buyers could initiate from the previous week’s close at 48998 and attempt to push price higher toward new all time highs. • Alternatively, price may retrace back toward the 48650 area, where buyers are expected to respond and defend the level. • A successful defense at 48650 could lead to a rotation back up toward 49294, the current all time high. • Continued buying pressure could extend the move toward 49430, the weekly 0.5 standard deviation high. • Profit taking may emerge near 49430, potentially causing the market to rotate lower in the short term. • If buyers are able to maintain acceptance above this area, continuation toward 49838, the weekly 1 standard deviation high, becomes possible. Neutral scenario • If the market makes new all time highs but fails to accept above the 48998 previous close, sellers may respond. • Seller response is likely near the 49420 area, which aligns with the weekly 0.5 standard deviation high. • A failure to accept higher prices could result in a rotation back down toward the 48650 area. • Buyers are expected to respond again near 48650, supporting price and slowing downside momentum. • A two way auction may develop as the market works to establish higher value. Bearish scenario • If buyers fail to defend the 48650 level, this would indicate a breakdown in short term market structure. • A failure at this level would likely lead the price to move lower through the 15 December weekly value area. • The market could then auction down toward the 48170 area, which aligns with the 15 December weekly Value Area Low and the weekly 1 standard deviation low. Conclusion YM remains in a structurally bullish environment, but recent price action suggests a market transitioning from directional strength to balance near the highs. How price behaves around 48650 will likely determine whether buyers can continue pressing higher or whether the market needs additional time to rotate and build value. As always, context, acceptance, and response at key levels will be critical. If you found this analysis useful, feel free to like, comment, or share your own view on YM below. Please give this a boost so that more traders in the community can participate. Thank you. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk.

Macro Backdrop and Sentiment Over the Past Month Over the past month, the macro narrative for ES has been defined by a gradual shift from momentum driven optimism to a more cautious and selective risk environment. Coming out of October, equities were supported by easing financial conditions, strong earnings from mega cap technology, and continued enthusiasm around productivity gains tied to AI investment. That optimism pushed ES to fresh all time highs by the end of October. As November progressed, sentiment became more balanced. Market participants began to reassess forward growth expectations, the path of monetary policy, and the sustainability of stretched valuations. Rather than a sharp risk off move, the tape transitioned into a rotational regime where participants became increasingly responsive around well defined value areas. This shift has resulted in slower tempo, overlapping value, and greater sensitivity to technical references rather than headline driven trend continuation. The market has increasingly rewarded patience, context, and execution around key levels as opposed to chasing momentum. What the Market has done • From the all time highs made at the end of October, the market rotated lower toward the 6605 area, which aligned with daily support. Responsive buyers entered aggressively at this level and successfully defended the level. • Following the responsive buying, price auctioned higher toward the 6975 area, which aligned with daily resistance and the 5 November weekly value area high, where sellers responded and capped further upside. • During the past week, the market broke below the first two weeks of December’s range and the composite value area, signaling a short term loss of acceptance at higher prices. • Price then auctioned lower toward the 6780 area, which aligned with the 24 November weekly VPOC, where buyers once again responded and defended the level. • Responsive buying from 6780 drove the price back higher toward the 6885 area, which sits near the 12 December weekly settlement and the two week composite value area low, reinforcing the broader balanced structure. What to expect in the coming week The key reference to frame the coming week is the previous week’s settlement at 6888.50. Bullish scenario • If the market can accept above 6888.50, expect an auction higher toward the 6970 area, which aligns with daily resistance, the 5 November weekly value area high, and the weekly 0.5 standard deviation high. • Sellers are expected to respond in the 6970 area and attempt to rotate price back down • If sellers fail to defend this area, continuation higher toward 7012 becomes likely, which aligns with all time highs and the weekly 1 standard deviation high. Bearish scenario • If the market is unable to accept above 6888.50, expect a move lower toward the 6827 area, which aligns with the previous week’s value area low and the weekly 0.5 standard deviation low. • Buyers are expected to respond at 6827 to bid prices back up through value. • If buyers fail to hold 6827, expect a continuation lower toward the 6780 area, which aligns with the previous week’s low, the 24 November weekly VPOC, and the weekly 1 standard deviation low. Neutral scenario • If the market is unable to extend meaningfully beyond 6970 on the upside or 6827 on the downside, expect the market to remain balanced and rotational. • In this scenario, value is likely to continue shifting modestly higher as the market awaits the next catalyst. Conclusion ES remains in a broader balance regime where responsive trade dominates and initiative activity has struggled to sustain follow through. Until the market can show clear acceptance above resistance or below support, patience and level based execution remain critical. The previous week’s settlement at 6888.50 will act as the primary decision point this week that helps determine whether the market seeks higher prices, deeper balance, or continued two way trade. If seasonal Santa rally dynamics come into play, they may act as the catalyst that allows the market to regain initiative strength and auction back toward all time highs. What is your take on ES? We would love to hear your view on it. Please give us your comments and give this a boost so that more traders in the community can participate. Thank you. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk.