Annoucements

Market Overview and Key Drivers Natural gas futures are among the most seasonally sensitive products in the commodity markets, with prices largely driven by predictable demand cycles and unpredictable weather shocks. Demand typically begins to build in late summer, with prices often finding seasonal lows between July and August before rallying into September and October as the market prices in winter heating demand. Volatility generally accelerates from November through February, when cold weather events, storage draws, and forecast revisions can rapidly shift sentiment. As winter demand fades, prices often soften into March and April, followed by a weaker period in May and June as heating demand subsides and storage injections resume. Beyond seasonality, traders closely monitor weekly EIA storage reports, temperature forecasts measured through heating degree days, production trends, and LNG export flows. Short term price discovery is frequently driven by changes in weather models, while medium term direction is shaped by whether storage levels and production trends confirm or contradict seasonal expectations. Natural gas does not maintain a consistent correlation with other energy products, as pricing is driven more by regional supply and demand than global macro flows. That said, broader risk sentiment and energy sector positioning can still influence short term price behavior. Volatility remains elevated, especially during winter, when forecast changes can reprice the market quickly. Over the past week, natural gas prices reacted sharply to weather driven headlines. A polar vortex warning across large parts of the United States triggered a surge in short term demand expectations, leading to an aggressive upside move. This rally pushed price into the upper portion of the broader multi-year range. What the market has done • The market remains within a larger multi-year range, with clearly defined weekly resistance in the 5.8 to 6.0 area and weekly support near the 3.2 area. • Since the end of winter in 2025, price has respected a block step trend down, consistently rotating lower after each failed rally attempt. • The market began its seasonal rally in September, driven by expectations of increased winter heating demand and tightening balances. • Sellers responded aggressively at the start of December at offer block 2, auctioning price lower and pushing the market back toward the 3.2 weekly support area. • In the past week, a polar vortex weather warning across the United States triggered a sharp upside spike, driving price toward the 5.6 area, aligning with offer block 1 near the top of the multi-year range and directly into the March 2025 mVAH. What to expect in the coming weeks The key level to monitor remains the 5.0 area, which aligns with daily level 1, the March mVAL, and the April mVAH. This zone is likely to act as the primary decision point for both buyers and sellers as the winter season progresses. Bullish scenario • If the market holds above the previous week’s close at 5.278, continued momentum could carry price higher toward the 6.0 area. • The 6.0 level aligns with weekly resistance and the upper boundary of the multi year range. • Sellers are expected to respond aggressively in this area, potentially leading to rotational or rejection based price action rather than sustained breakout behavior. Neutral scenario • Price may balance between the 5.0 area and the 5.75 zone for the remainder of the winter season. • This range represents a region of prior acceptance, with 5.75 aligning with weekly resistance and the March 2025 mVAH. • In this scenario, traders should expect two sided trade and rotational behavior rather than directional continuation. Bearish scenario • If buyers fail to hold price above the 5.0 area, long liquidation could accelerate. • A downside move could target the SOC, repairing single prints left behind during the recent weather driven rally. • Buyers are expected to respond near the 4.47 and 4.25 area, which aligns with the December 2025 VPOC and daily level 2. Conclusion Natural gas remains a headline driven market where technical structure and macro fundamentals must be evaluated together. While seasonal demand and extreme weather events continue to support volatility, the broader market remains constrained within a well defined multi year range. From a technical perspective, acceptance or rejection around the 5.0 area will likely dictate whether price continues higher toward weekly resistance or rotates lower to repair unfinished auctions. Fundamentally, traders should remain alert to shifts in weather forecasts, storage trends, and production data, as these factors can quickly invalidate technical setups. As winter unfolds, traders will need to respect the speed of rotations and the market’s tendency to punish late positioning near range extremes. If you found this analysis helpful, consider sharing your own levels or scenarios and join the discussion. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk. Acronyms: C - Composite w - Weekly m - Monthly VAH - Value Area High VAL - Value Area Low VPOC - Volume Point of Control LVN - Low Value Node HVN - High Value Node LVA - Low Value Area SP - Single print

Why Platinum Is Moving Platinum is a unique metal that sits at the intersection of precious and industrial markets. Unlike gold, which is primarily viewed as a monetary or store of value asset, platinum derives a larger share of its demand from industrial uses. Silver sits between the two, with meaningful industrial demand alongside its role as a monetary metal. These include catalytic converters, chemical processing, hydrogen related technologies, and jewelry. Because of this dual role, platinum tends to be more sensitive to shifts in global growth expectations than gold, while still reacting to macro forces such as inflation, real rates, and currency trends. From a correlation standpoint, platinum often trades in sympathy with gold and silver during periods of broad commodity strength, but the relationship is not constant. Gold typically leads during risk off environments, while platinum performs best when growth expectations improve and industrial demand increases. In recent months, platinum has begun to decouple from gold, showing relative strength as investors price in tighter physical supply and improving demand narratives. Silver has also participated in this move, but platinum’s advance has been more structurally driven rather than purely momentum based. Recent sentiment has shifted materially since December 2025. After spending years trapped in a large consolidation range, platinum finally attracted sustained institutional interest. Supply constraints from major producing regions, rising costs of extraction, and renewed interest in platinum as a substitute metal in industrial applications have all contributed to the move higher. The breakout since December 2025 reflects a repricing of long term value rather than a short term speculative spike, which helps explain the persistence of the trend despite periods of volatility. What the Market has done • The market has been on a bullish uptrend since markets broke out of a multi year consolidation and accumulation range that lasted from December 2021 to June 2025. • Markets formed two clear accumulation ranges during the advance, suggesting strong two way trade before higher prices were accepted. • At the start of December 2025, market compressed against daily level 1, forming bid block 1 as buyers continued to absorb supply. • Buyers initiated higher from this compression and pushed price to new ATHs in the spot market. • Sellers responded aggressively at the end of December 2025, resulting in a volatile two way whipsaw and expanded range. • Over the past two weeks, market volatility has contracted and the overall range has narrowed as the market works to establish a new value area at higher prices. What to expect in the coming week Key reference levels remain 2500, which marks the CVAH, and 2330, defined by the 5 Jan wVAH and the 12 Jan wVAL. These levels frame the current auction and provide clarity for upcoming scenarios. Neutral scenario • Continued two way balanced rotation between 2500 and 2330 would suggest acceptance of higher prices. • This behavior would indicate responsive participation from both buyers and sellers rather than initiative control. • Value may continue to build above prior ranges, reinforcing the broader bullish structure without requiring immediate continuation. Bearish scenario • If buyers are unable to defend the 2330 area, the auction is likely to rotate lower in search of demand. • A move toward 2136.9, which aligns with the 5 Jan wVPOC, would be the first downside repair target. • Continued acceptance below that level could expose the 2069 area, where the CLVN remains untested. Bullish scenario • If the market is able to break and accept above 2500, buyers may regain initiative control. • Acceptance above the CVAH would signal strength and continuation of price discovery. • This scenario increases the probability of a move toward new ATHs, particularly if value begins to migrate higher. Conclusion Platinum’s breakout is occurring against a backdrop of tightening supply, improving industrial demand expectations, and a broader commodity bid as inflation and growth dynamics remain in focus. While the structural shift higher is notable, history offers an important reminder. The last time platinum entered a parabolic phase in 2008, the move was followed by a 67% drawdown that erased four years of gains in just four months. As price continues to build value at higher levels, respecting both macro drivers and auction behavior will be critical in navigating the weeks ahead. If you found this analysis useful, feel free to give a boost, comment, or share your own levels and scenarios below. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk. Acronyms: C - Composite w - Weekly VAH - Value Area High VAL - Value Area Low VPOC - Volume Point of Control LVN - Low Value Node HVN - High Value Node LVA - Low Value Area SP - Single print

The Long Bond and the Shifting Inflation Narrative The ZB thirty year Treasury futures contract represents the long end of the United States Treasury yield curve and is primarily driven by expectations around inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and long term interest rate risk. Because of its long duration, ZB is the most sensitive Treasury product to changes in inflation expectations and shifts in term premium. When markets become concerned about persistent inflation or increased Treasury issuance, ZB tends to underperform. When growth risks rise or inflation pressures ease, ZB often attracts defensive demand. Within the Treasury complex, ZB sits at the far end of the curve, while ZT two year, ZF five year, and ZN ten year futures reflect progressively shorter duration exposures. ZT is most reactive to Federal Reserve policy expectations, ZN tends to balance policy and growth considerations, and ZB expresses longer term confidence or concern about economic stability and inflation control. Over the past few months, sentiment in ZB has improved as inflation has moderated from prior highs and recession risks have remained present but not fully realized. The narrative since late spring has centered on easing tariff fears, slower but resilient growth, and a market that is gradually reassessing how restrictive policy needs to remain over the long run. This week, macro data will be a major driver. CPI on January 13th, followed by PPI and retail sales on January 14th, will shape near term direction. A miss in CPI or PPI, particularly on core measures, would likely support ZB as it reinforces the idea that long term inflation pressures are cooling, allowing yields to drift lower. A beat in inflation or strong retail sales would pressure ZB lower, as it would revive concerns that growth and pricing power remain too firm for comfort at the long end of the curve. What the Market has done • Since bottoming out at the 109'14 area in May 2025 after tariff fears were alleviated, bids have stepped up and the market has steadily reclaimed the April Trump liberation tariff selloff. • In September 2025, buyers were able to overcome sellers at 116’00, which was daily level 2 and a four month resistance level where sellers had previously defended. • Subsequently, buyers were able to defend this level until the end of November, when bids slipped and sellers were able to offer prices down through the September 5, 2025 low value area and single print at 115'20 to 114'20. • Since December, the market has been consolidating sideways within this zone, filling in and repairing the LVA as balance has developed. What to expect in the coming week The key level to watch is 115'25 to 116'00, which represents the previous week’s close, the current consolidation block high, and the over-under zone of daily level 2. Neutral scenario • Expect the market to continue consolidating in a tight range, potentially between 115'25 and 115'05, as participants wait for clarity from CPI on January 13th and PPI and retail sales on January 14th. • In this scenario, rotational and mean reverting behavior should dominate, with responsive buyers and sellers active at range extremes. Bearish scenario • If the market is unable to accept above 116'00, expect a rotation back down through the consolidation block toward 114'18, which aligns with the range low and weekly one standard deviation low. • This bearish scenario is likely to be very choppy and difficult to trade, as the market remains in balance within the broader 116 to 114'20 range. Bullish scenario • If the market is able to accept above 116'00, price could move up through offer block 1 toward 117'00, which represents the high of offer block 1 and the weekly one standard deviation high. • In our opinion, this is the cleaner trade opportunity, as the market would be imbalancing out of the current balanced and composite value area, opening the door for directional follow through. Conclusion ZB sits at a critical decision point, balancing between a well repaired value area below and a clearly defined acceptance zone above. With CPI scheduled for January 13th, followed by PPI and retail sales on January 14th, the market is likely to remain patient until these releases provide clarity on inflation persistence and demand strength. A softer inflation print or weaker consumption data would support acceptance higher and reinforce the bullish imbalance scenario, while firmer data could keep ZB capped and pressure price back through the current consolidation. In our opinion, traders should focus on how price responds at 116'00 and 115'25 following the releases, as acceptance or rejection at these levels will likely define the next directional opportunity. If you found this analysis useful, feel free to give a boost, comment, or share your own levels and scenarios below. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk. Acronyms: w - Weekly VAH - Value Area High VAL - Value Area Low VPOC - Volume Point of Control LVN - Low Value Node HVN - High Value Node LVA - Low Value Area SP - Single print